2024 Oil Market Outlook: Oversupply, Demand Concerns, and Revised Price Forecasts

Oil investors are entering 2024 with concerns about oversupply, slowing economic growth, and simmering tensions in the Middle East that could lead to price volatility. Despite demand reaching record highs, prices have been capped by a strong dollar and robust non-OPEC output. Analysts forecast Brent crude to average $84.43 a barrel in 2024, with supply expected to grow between 1.2 million and 1.9 million bpd, driven by non-OPEC producers. Key factors to watch include OPEC+ compliance with voluntary output cuts, the influence of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela on global markets, the impact of new refineries on refined product tightness, and the potential for a crude quality mismatch between light sweet and medium sour grades.