"The Unpredictable Economic Landscape: Recession Speculations Persist Amidst Market Rally"

While the Federal Reserve's discussions on the economy, inflation, and interest rates are anticipated this week, the release of the employment cost index (ECI) on Friday is expected to be the most significant development for markets. The ECI, a highly regarded wage measurement, is projected to tick slightly slower in the second quarter, but still represents a year-over-year rise that may not align with the Fed's 2% inflation target. Concerns arise over the potential for a wage-price spiral if labor strikes and expensive contract settlements lead to a rebound in wage inflation. The ECI report will also shed light on union compensation, which has been falling behind nonunion compensation. Additionally, the quits rate from the JOLTS report, which is currently declining, tends to lead the wage and salaries series of the ECI.