Goldilocks economy hides underlying strains in 2026 data

The U.S. economy starts 2026 in a Goldilocks balance: solid growth and a firm job market (January +130,000 jobs, unemployment 4.3%) with CPI at 2.4% YoY and core 2.5%, near the Fed's target. But revisions show average monthly job gains near zero over the past year, AI-driven cost cuts may be trimming high-paying roles, and some prices (electricity, natural gas, beef, coffee) remain elevated. Markets look steady yet vulnerable to AI-profitability fears. Bottom line: economy and markets appear solid, though underlying data point to softer footing beneath the surface.