Could a New Oil Shock Redraw Global Finance?

The piece revisits the 1973–74 and 1978–79 oil shocks that upended inflation and reshaped global finance, then considers whether today’s Iran conflict could trigger a similar disruption. While the US is now a net energy exporter and the dollar remains dominant, the ultimate impact hinges on how long the conflict lasts and how much oil flows are disrupted. The episode could accelerate shifts in energy policy, deepen the role of oil producers’ sovereign wealth funds, and alter global money flows in ways that echo the 70s, even as the current dynamics differ.