Iran Bets Stir Questions Over CFTC’s Stance on Prediction Markets

Rolling Stone reports that the CFTC has softened its crackdown on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, even as unusual trades tied to Trump-era Iran actions drew scrutiny, including a reported $1.5 billion bet on oil and S&P futures just before Trump's post. Lawmakers are calling for investigations into possible insider trading; Kalshi and Polymarket have tightened rules, and the PREDICT Act was introduced to bar insiders from trading on political events. The piece also notes a broader enforcement slowdown at the CFTC and SEC during Trump’s tenure and that there’s been no announced probe into the Iran trades.