Fed's March 2023 Forecast: Interest Rate Cuts Expected Next Year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has updated its economic forecasts generated by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model forecasts use data released through 2022:Q4, augmented for 2023:Q1 with the median forecasts for real GDP growth and core PCE inflation from the February release of the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model expects output growth to be higher for 2023 than in December, and inflation is projected to be a bit more elevated at all forecast horizons in comparison to December. Monetary policy is expected to be tighter in absolute terms relative to December, consistent with the January/February Survey of Primary Dealers.