Social Security Faces a 2033 Crunch Driven by Demographics and Trump Tax Policy
The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report warns that the program’s old-age and survivors insurance (OASI) trust fund runs out of reserves by 2033, with a potential ~23% benefit cut needed to keep payments through 2099. President Trump’s 2024 tax law accelerates costs for the program (roughly $168.6 billion 2025–2034), pushing the depletion closer to 2032, but the bigger strain comes from demographics—slower birth rates, aging baby boomers, and reduced net immigration—along with a payroll-tax base erosion as earnings pass the tax cap. There are no easy fixes, and reform remains politically challenging.