Goldman Sachs suggests that stocks may outperform due to the Fed's easing policy, with specific bullish outlooks on Celsius Holdings and StepStone Group, citing strong growth prospects and recent financial performance.
While the outlook for stocks appears bullish, there are several significant risks that could impact the market. These risks include the possibility of a recession, a bursting debt bubble, overvalued stocks, and the potential for a Black Swan event. Wall Street forecasters warn that even a hint of a recession could send stocks plunging, and there are concerns about the formation of a massive debt bubble. Additionally, some parts of the S&P 500 are considered overvalued, and there are predictions of a significant correction. Finally, the possibility of a Black Swan event, such as escalating tensions between the US and China or conflict in the Middle East, could have catastrophic effects on the global economy.
Dow Jones futures were little changed ahead of Tuesday's open after the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 300 points on Monday. This week's key earnings results include Netflix and Tesla, while Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and Lockheed Martin are among the key earnings reporters. The economic calendar includes retail sales results for September, and the stock market outlook has been downgraded to an "uptrend under pressure." Investors are advised to remain cautious and look for new stock market leadership to emerge.
Stifel strategist Barry Bannister, who has been accurate in his stock market predictions, believes that after a strong start to the year, stocks may struggle to regain momentum and end the year on a high note.
After a strong start to the year, the stock market faced a setback in August, with historical trends indicating weakness in August and September. Wall Street analysts have mixed opinions on the market's future. JPMorgan's chief global stock strategist believes the market rally is over and a recession is inevitable. Morgan Stanley's CIO is not bullish on the remainder of the year, while a senior portfolio manager sees the S&P 500 reaching 5,000 by year-end. Fundstrat's Tom Lee expects a month-long rally to bring the index back to its 2023 highs. Wedbush predicts a tech stock rally fueled by AI-driven spending, while Jeremy Siegel sees upside potential if the Fed holds off on rate hikes. However, Rosenberg Research warns of a potential stock market tumble due to broader economic pressures, and Key Advisors Wealth Management cautions that stocks could tank by 10% or more in the event of another rate hike.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's CIO, Lisa Shalett, suggests that investors should consider buying US Treasurys as a hedge against high-priced stocks amid rising bond yields and a potential slowdown in the equity-market rally. Shalett believes that bonds have become more attractive in recent weeks and could offer decent capital gains potential. With bond yields rising above 4% and concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, investors may find bonds more appealing due to similar returns at a lower risk level. Shalett advises investors to consider hedges for their high-priced stocks in case the optimistic scenario of sustained economic growth and low inflation doesn't materialize.