All articles tagged with #seasonal weakness
September is traditionally the worst month for stocks due to seasonal weakness and increased volatility, but this year might be different as August's strong performance and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could lead to a more positive outlook, especially if the market remains above key indicators like the 200-day moving average.
Analysts at Ned Davis Research caution that bullish sentiment in the stock market is currently in the "excessive" zone, which could contribute to a weak first-half December performance. The research firm's indicators show that short-term sentiment is at its most optimistic level since July, while crowd sentiment has returned to optimistic territory for the first time since August. This increase in sentiment aligns with the stock market's historical tendency for weakness in the first half of December. However, analysts suggest that a seasonal pullback could set the stage for a potential Santa Claus rally.