Cracking the Seismic Code: Parkfield's Forecast and the Quest for a Crystal Ball
The piece examines why predicting earthquakes is so challenging, using California’s Parkfield Experiment on the San Andreas Fault as a focal point. Although scientists predicted a quake between 1985 and 1993, a magnitude-6.0 event occurred in 2004—11 years later—highlighting the inherent uncertainty of fault behavior. The article explains how fault geometry, subsurface properties, and limited historical data complicate forecasts, while noting advances in hazard maps, sensor networks, InSAR, GPS, and AI that improve risk assessment and move toward a practical (though not perfectly precise) seismic 'crystal ball.'