Moscow stands firm on Ukraine demands as nuclear leverage threads through diplomacy and war
ISW reports that Medvedev used a three-way media push to reaffirm Russia’s unchanged demands on Ukraine—neutrality, demilitarization, and denazification—while rejecting security guarantees and signaling continued use of nuclear deterrence to extract concessions in US-led talks. Militarily, Russia maintains pressure around Lyman with aims toward Slovyansk, but Ukrainian counterattacks and logistical constraints likely push any major operation several months out; Kyiv has moved to restrict non-registered Starlink terminals to curb drone use, and Belarusian balloon incursions reflect broader cognitive warfare. ISW assesses a rapid seizure of the Fortress Belt remains unlikely, with fighting spanning Kharkiv, Pokrovsk, Oskil, and Donetsk directions and continued cross-border activity as part of a long, multi-front campaign.)
