A disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could curb fertiliser (ammonia/urea) and LNG flows, triggering a global fertiliser price shock that threatens crop yields and food security for months or years as farmers face higher costs and tighter supplies.
Attacks and a near-total halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz threaten a large chunk of global fertiliser supplies (ammonia and nitrogen), with fertiliser costs highly tied to fossil gas. A prolonged closure could push up fertiliser prices, reduce crop yields, and lift prices for staples like bread and potatoes, impacting farmers in the UK, Europe, and North America who already face price volatility. The Gulf disruption compounds existing pressures from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and multiple incidents near Hormuz underscore ongoing risk to shipments of energy and fertiliser inputs.