The stock market remains fearless despite rising risks, with low volatility and optimistic sentiment driven by AI, housing, and tax cuts, but concerns about speculative excess and the Fed's influence persist, suggesting potential for sharp reversals.
Bitcoin is set to post its third positive month in a row and best quarter in two years, despite a banking meltdown and regulatory crackdown. The cryptocurrency has gained more than 70% year-to-date, with investors seeing it as a "flight to safety" amid banking turbulence. The correlation between bitcoin and equities is at its lowest since September 2021, while its correlation with gold has risen. The Fed's potential pivot on interest rates could remove a macro headwind for crypto, but investors should still tread carefully.