Unemployment Reaches Tipping Point as October Jobs Report Disappoints
The rise in unemployment to 3.9% last month brings joblessness close to triggering the Sahm Rule, a reliable predictor of recessions. The rule, created by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, defines a recession as a half-percentage point or more increase in the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate relative to its low in the previous year. While unemployment has risen, it has not yet triggered the rule, according to Sahm.