Actuarial Warfare: Reinsurance Tightens Hormuz into a Year‑Long Squeeze
TL;DR Summary
Seven international P&I clubs canceled war-risk coverage under Solvency II tail risk, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and forcing a market‑driven regime where private reinsurance, governance fragmentation, and interceptor constraints create a six‑to‑18 month duration problem. The piece argues markets are mispricing this duration by about a factor of three and outlines hedging ideas and governance needs to reopen the chokepoint.
- Actuarial Warfare: How Seven Insurance Letters Closed the World’s Most Critical Chokepoint and Why Markets Are Mispricing Duration by 300% Shanaka Anslem Perera | Substack
- There's another big reason why shipping companies and insurers aren't willing to risk the Strait of Hormuz CNBC
- HORMUZ TRACKER: Strait Shut to Almost All Non-Iran-Linked Ships Bloomberg
- Iran’s Chokehold on Persian Gulf Waterway Strains Shipping The New York Times
- No One, Not Even Beijing, Is Getting Through the Strait of Hormuz CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies
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Read on Shanaka Anslem Perera | Substack