Actuarial Warfare: Reinsurance Tightens Hormuz into a Year‑Long Squeeze
Seven international P&I clubs canceled war-risk coverage under Solvency II tail risk, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and forcing a market‑driven regime where private reinsurance, governance fragmentation, and interceptor constraints create a six‑to‑18 month duration problem. The piece argues markets are mispricing this duration by about a factor of three and outlines hedging ideas and governance needs to reopen the chokepoint.