Unmasking America's Unpredictable Authoritarians

The article highlights the limitations of the "rational actor model" in predicting the actions of autocratic leaders, using examples such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. It argues that policymakers and analysts need to consider the possibility of miscalculations and irrational behavior when assessing the intentions of autocrats like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. To better anticipate such actions, analysts should evaluate potential mistakes an adversary could make and prepare various responses. The intelligence community can play a crucial role in detecting indicators of irrational behavior, serving as an early warning system. Western policymakers must be open-minded and prepared for unexpected actions from autocratic leaders.