The West's Nightmare, China's Opportunity: Russia's Potential Breakup

Calls for the disintegration of Russia into smaller states have been growing in Western foreign policy circles, but the prospect of a broken-up Russia is unlikely. While some regions in Russia, such as Tatarstan and Dagestan, have genuine mass appeal for autonomy, most regions lack public support for independence. The idea of a fragmented Russia taps into concerns about the country's challenge to the West and its war in Ukraine. However, the potential disintegration of Russia could pose security threats to China and may lead to China exerting its influence in Russia's Far East. The war in Ukraine has had a unifying effect in Russia, with many Russians becoming reluctant supporters due to propaganda emphasizing the threat from the West to Russia's territorial integrity.