Iran's Dilemma: Avoiding a Regional War with Israel

The US intelligence community believes that Iran and its proxies are currently trying to avoid a direct conflict with Israel or the US while still inflicting costs on their adversaries. However, concerns remain about the control Iran has over its proxies, particularly Hezbollah, which is an ally of Hamas. The US officials are worried that internal politics within Hezbollah may lead to an escalation of tensions. While Iran knows that an escalation could provoke devastating counterattacks, the lower-level attacks by proxy groups have already caused significant military deployments by the US and Israel. The US officials believe that this is a coordinated strategy, but caution that it carries the potential for miscalculation and could lead to a wider conflict.