The Mirage of AI's Emergent Abilities: New Research Explains Why.

Researchers at Stanford University have published a paper arguing that evidence of emergent behavior in AI models may be a "mirage" induced by researcher analyses. They contend that when results are reported in non-linear metrics, they appear to show sharp, unpredictable changes that are erroneously interpreted as indicators of emergent behavior. However, an alternate means of measuring the identical data using linear metrics shows "smooth, continuous" changes that reveal predictable, non-emergent behavior. The researchers added that failure to use large enough samples also contributes to faulty conclusions.