Russia's Post-Ukraine Strategy: Preparing for the Future

Regardless of the outcome in Ukraine, Russia will remain a major challenge for the United States. The country is held together by powerful forces, and defeat in Ukraine will not lead to its breakup or a democratic breakthrough. Post-conflict Russia will likely be authoritarian, expansionist, and economically lagging, yet still determined to play the role of a great power. Russia's large nuclear arsenal, cyber capabilities, and military potential make it a key factor in strategic stability. It will also continue to be a critical component of European security and play important roles in the Arctic, Middle East, and Indo-Pacific regions. The United States should seek to harness Russia's power for its own purposes rather than trying to contain it, focusing on peaceful coexistence, responsible competition, and mutually beneficial cooperation. Strategic stability, European security, and managing relations with China will be the dominant issues in U.S.-Russia relations in the years ahead.