"College Applications in the Post-Affirmative Action Era: Predicting the Outcome for High School Seniors"

The experiences of states like California and Michigan, which banned affirmative action in their public university systems, provide a cautionary tale for the rest of the country. After the removal of affirmative action, these states saw a significant decline in diversity among incoming freshman classes, particularly at elite institutions. Efforts to mitigate the loss of diversity, such as comprehensive reviews of applicants and expanded eligibility programs, were not enough to make up for the absence of affirmative action. Research shows that affirmative action plays a crucial role in providing opportunities for underrepresented minorities and promoting social mobility. Without it, students of color may be discouraged from applying to selective schools, leading to a vicious cycle of declining diversity. The recent Supreme Court decision on affirmative action further underscores the need for race-based admissions policies to ensure equal opportunity in higher education.