Krugman Warns Rising Energy Prices Could Roil GOP Midterm Narrative

Nobel economist Paul Krugman argues that a rise in RBOB futures—wholesale gasoline—driven by U.S.-Iran tensions could jeopardize President Trump’s bid to lower living costs and shape the midterm race, noting the contract has surged about 60% year-to-date. He cautions the energy shock, while milder than the 1970s, could lift pump prices and overall inflation, estimating roughly a $15 uptick in oil would add about 0.3 percentage points to the cost of living (a $50 oil spike could push CPI up near 1%). Krugman also highlights broader economic pressures from tariffs, immigration policies, and AI risks, with energy volatility adding to the uncertainty.