"Wells Fargo Predicts Short-Term S&P 500 Decline, Maintains Long-Term Optimism"

Wells Fargo analysts foresee near-term downside for the S&P 500 due to higher rates, cautious 1Q24 comments on consumer demand, and geopolitical tensions, but maintain a bullish long-term view. They emphasize the impact of rising rates on longer-duration equities and suggest that a status quo environment favors the Momentum style. The bank also notes a decrease in the futures-implied number of Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2024, indicating potential for the status quo trade to continue. Despite anticipating a volatility spike in the first half of 2024, Wells Fargo raised its S&P 500 target and 2025 earnings estimate, attributing the ongoing bull market to investors prioritizing growth and discounting metrics over traditional valuation measures.