Analyst Predicts Year-End S&P 500 Rally Amid Economic and Geopolitical Challenges

Despite economic and geopolitical challenges, historical data suggests a potential year-end rally for the S&P 500. In years when the index gained more than 1.4% in the first five days and showed negative performance for the previous year, the S&P 500 posted an average gain of 3.6% between October 17 and year-end. However, the near-term outlook may not be as optimistic, with average changes of -0.2% in October, 1.2% in November, and 2.5% in December. Positive earnings growth and a dovish message from the Federal Reserve could support the market, but inflation and geopolitical tensions remain concerns. The traditional Santa Claus rally in December could potentially lift the market.