Oil Rally May Be Underpricing Iran Risk Amid Tensions

Oil prices rose to six-month highs as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions raise fears of potential supply disruptions from Iran’s 3 million barrels per day of output, with tensions intensifying around nuclear talks and increased Gulf deployments. While traders have often framed the market as oversupplied, data show inventories below the five-year average and shrinking spare capacity, suggesting a real risk of disruption if the region heats up and the market may be underpricing that risk.