"San Francisco Fed Predicts Depletion of COVID-era Savings for Households"

The San Francisco Fed predicts that households' excess savings, which had reached about $500 billion in March, are likely to be depleted by the third quarter of 2023. However, estimating the exact amount of excess savings is challenging and subject to uncertainty. Despite this, retail sales have seen a significant increase, surprising economists, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates strong economic growth in the third quarter. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has also reached its highest level since 2008.