"Forecasting Modest Pay Hikes for US Workers in 2024"

In 2024, U.S. workers can expect an average salary increase of nearly 4%, a slight decrease from the previous year's 4% rise. This trend, highlighted by Payscale's Salary Budget Survey, reflects a cooling labor market influenced by higher interest rates and a hiring slowdown. Despite this, job growth remains resilient, with private-sector employers adding 164,000 jobs in December. Wage growth has been higher for job changers compared to job stayers, and the risk of a wage-price spiral is considered low, indicating potential for real economic growth. Sector-specific variations in wage growth are anticipated, but overall, pay increases could outpace inflation for the first time since 2020 if trends continue.