Insider-style bets on US-Iran ceasefire draw scrutiny on Polymarket
Eight new Polymarket accounts placed about $70k on a US-Iran ceasefire, with potential payouts near $820k if a deal is announced by March 31. Analysts say wallet-splitting and timing around recent remarks suggest insider knowledge, a pattern seen in other bets and fueling regulatory questions about prediction markets in warfare. Polymarket's odds have risen from 6% to 24% as scrutiny grows, though settlement requires a public ceasefire acknowledgment by both governments.