All articles tagged with #seismic rupture
Recent research shows that the next major earthquake on California's San Andreas fault may not follow historical patterns, as exemplified by a surprising long rupture in Myanmar's similar fault, indicating that earthquakes can behave unpredictably and vary significantly in size and scope.
A study comparing the Myanmar earthquake to potential scenarios on California's San Andreas fault suggests that future mega-earthquakes may not replicate past events exactly, with possibilities ranging from smaller, segmented quakes to a larger, more destructive rupture, emphasizing the unpredictability and complexity of seismic activity.
A 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar in March, causing over 5,000 deaths, with seismologists confirming that the rupture along the Sagaing Fault occurred at supershear velocity, which likely contributed to its devastating impact. The earthquake involved a long rupture with significant slip, and evidence suggests that the rupture's speed and directivity played a role in the widespread damage. Despite the fault's history of large quakes, this event occurred in a relatively quiet segment, highlighting the importance of early warning systems.
A global analysis of GPS time-series data from nearly 100 large earthquakes suggests the existence of a precursory phase of fault slip that occurs approximately two hours before seismic rupture. However, the current monitoring tools lack the necessary coverage and precision to detect or monitor for precursory slip at the scale of individual earthquakes, posing a significant challenge for practical earthquake prediction. If confirmed and reliably measured, this precursory phase could potentially provide a warning for large earthquakes.