Oil Shock Eases Russia’s War Budget as Iran Strike Sends Prices Higher
An oil price spike triggered by the Iran strike lifts Russia's Urals toward its 2026 budget assumption, easing revenue shortfalls caused by sanctions and refinery damage. If Gulf disruptions persist, Brent could hit around $120 or higher, with worst-case scenarios near $200 if Hormuz is fully disrupted; meanwhile, shifts in China and India toward discounted Urals could bolster Moscow's revenue. Despite a shrinking National Wealth Fund and a large deficit, the Iran conflict momentarily improves Russia’s budget outlook by sustaining oil income.
