Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz: Risks and Realities
US strikes on Iran have heightened fears of disrupting Middle East oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz, but history suggests any disruption would likely be short-lived due to Iran's limited capacity to fully block the strait and the US military's ability to respond swiftly. Despite the potential for increased energy prices, significant long-term supply shocks are unlikely, given historical precedents and existing spare capacity in global oil markets.