Moscow's Northern Raids: Narrative Push, Not a Breakthrough
ISW assesses that Russia's ongoing northern border raids are part of a cognitive warfare strategy intended to depict a broader offensive, but they have not yielded confirmed, operationally significant advances. Claims of seizures like Sydorivka remain unverified, and activity has been limited to small-group incursions. Ukraine's defense-industrial base is nearing self-sufficiency with Western partnerships and exports. Milbloggers blame SpaceX Starlink outages for hindering Russian comms, while Russia continues to adapt Shahed drones with rearward air-to-air missiles. Ukrainian strikes against Kapustin Yar and other infrastructure are noted, and winter weather plus command-and-control challenges constrain Russian efforts as Moscow uses the narrative of looming victory to pressure the West and Kyiv.