
Opta Numbers Put Arsenal on Top as UCL 2025-26 Knockout Draw Takes Shape
Opta’s 10,000-simulation model after the 2025-26 knockout draw lists Arsenal as the favorite to win the tournament (27.4% of simulations), with Bayern Munich, Liverpool, Manchester City and Barcelona among the other leading contenders; Real Madrid sit lower (2.8%), while longshots Galatasaray and Bodø/Glimt are at 0.2% and 0.4%. The last-16 line-up includes PSG vs Chelsea, Galatasaray vs Liverpool, Real Madrid vs City, Atalanta vs Bayern, Newcastle vs Barcelona, Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham, Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP, and Leverkusen vs Arsenal. City are the favorites to advance from the Real Madrid–City tie (64.3%), while the rest of the field chases the trophy in Budapest on 30 May.












