Navigating Inflation: The Appeal of Long-Term Treasury Bonds and Short-Term Bond ETFs
Two veteran analysts, Gary Shilling and James Grant, offer contrasting views on the 30-year Treasury bond. Shilling, a bull on bonds, argues that inflation will subside and believes in the long-term value of Treasury bonds. Grant, on the other hand, is bearish on government bonds and the dollar, favoring gold as a store of value. Both analysts anticipate a recession, but for different reasons. Shilling cites an inverted yield curve and other statistics, while Grant blames artificially suppressed interest rates. Shilling's historical analysis shows that holding long-dated bonds has performed well, despite recent bond price crashes. Grant warns of the potential for politicians to impose an inflation tax and advises caution for bondholders.