"Yield Curve's Perfect Track Record: Forecasting a US Economic Slowdown in 2024"
The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index, which has accurately predicted U.S. recessions for 72 years, recently reported a reading below 50 for the 16th consecutive month, signaling industrial-order contraction and potentially forecasting a recession in 2024. While this indicator doesn't guarantee market movements, historical data suggests that a downturn in the U.S. economy could lead to stock declines. However, long-term investors are reminded that economic downturns and stock market corrections have historically been short-lived, with most periods of economic expansion lasting for multiple years, and every downturn eventually being a buying opportunity for patient investors.