Assessing Handicapping Trends and Record-Breaking Results at Churchill Downs.
The Kentucky Derby's handicapping trends were put to the test with Mage's 15-1 victory, which validated some betting optics and muddled others. The Final Fractions Theory worked again, but certain speed-figure thresholds did not. Mage became the 25th Kentucky Derby winner from the Florida Derby, and the second Fountain of Youth finisher to win since 1996. The UAE Derby curse continued, and the winter-book favorite jinx persisted. However, Mage's win broke the post 17 drought, and he became the third Derby winner in six years to not race at age 2.