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Dvoa

All articles tagged with #dvoa

sports21 days ago•90 min saved

Schatz Unveils His 2025 NFL Awards Ballot and Super Bowl LX Forecast

Aaron Schatz reveals his official 2025 NFL awards ballot (MVP, Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive/Defensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, Assistant Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year) with full explanations for his top picks, including Drake Maye, Puka Nacua, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, plus a DVOA-based Super Bowl LX preview and a long-run prop-bet extravaganza that explains DVOA/DYAR metrics and betting angles.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#aaron-schatz #awards-ballot #dvoa

sports23 days ago•86 min saved

DVOA Forecast: Seahawks and Patriots Face Off in Super Bowl LX

FTN’s Super Bowl LX DVOA Preview pits Seattle’s historically great DVOA against New England’s late-season surge (weighted DVOA), breaking down offense/defense matchups, key personnel, and strategic wrinkles (third-down tendencies, play-action, and run defense) while outlining how those metrics translate into game planning. The piece also includes a lengthy Prop Bet Extravaganza with pregame bets, player props, and notable odds, plus context on DVOA, DYAR, ALY, and related metrics used to evaluate teams and players.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #nfl #patriots

sports23 days ago•6 min saved

Defensive Showdown Looms as Patriots Meet Seahawks in Super Bowl LX

A data-driven preview suggests Super Bowl LX could be a tight, defense-driven clash between the Patriots and Seahawks, with New England’s Drake Maye-led offense facing Seattle’s stout run defense and playoff-tested unit, as both teams sit among the NFL’s elite in EPA and DVOA. The matchup may hinge on game-day execution more than splashy offenses, potentially unfolding as a slugfest.

via Pats Pulpit|

#dvoa #epa #patriots

sports23 days ago•8 min saved

Seahawks deploy nickel-heavy defense to power Super Bowl run

Seattle’s unit has become a numbers-driven force by using a nickel-heavy base with two-deep safeties, generating pressure without blitzing and excelling in EPA and DVOA on both run and pass. A deep defensive-line rotation (Williams, Murphy II, Reed, Nwosu, Hall, Mafe) paired with versatile backs like Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori smothers the run (3.7 yards per carry allowed) and locks down pass concepts, fueling the Seahawks’ Super Bowl LX bid.

via sbnation.com|

#defense #dvoa #epa

nfl1 month ago•30 min saved

DVOA Forecasts Seahawks vs. Patriots in SB LX

FTN's DVOA pre-preview for Super Bowl LX casts SEA as the top team and NE as No. 2 in weighted DVOA, highlights New England's improved defense driven by a higher blitz rate against Darnold, notes Seahawks' strength in pass defense and NE's coverage vulnerabilities against WR1s, and promises a fuller SB LX preview next week.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #nfl #patriots

sports1 month ago•21 min saved

DVOA Duel: Seahawks, Rams Clash for NFC Championship

Two high-DVOA NFC contenders meet as Seattle—rested and red-hot after a 41-6 playoff win—hosts a fluctuating Rams squad with big-play potential. The game centers on Seattle’s passing attack versus LA’s secondary and whether the Rams can pressure Darnold into mistakes, while Seattle relies on a thinner run game with Charbonnet out. The author leans Seattle to win due to better form and rest, projecting them to advance to Super Bowl LX.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #los-angeles-rams #matthew-stafford

nfl1 month ago•62 min saved

DVOA Showdown: Rested Seahawks Edge Rams in NFC Championship Preview

FTN’s DVOA preview projects a tight NFC Championship between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, pitting Seattle’s historically high post-season DVOA and recent 41–6 win over San Francisco against a Rams squad that has flashed big plays but shown playoff volatility. The key matchups include Seattle’s passing attack against LA’s pass defense, the Seahawks’ injury-hit offense (Charbonnet out) with Kenneth Walker III carrying the ground game, and the Rams’ chaos-creating pass rush that’s forced mistakes from Sam Darnold in the past. Seattle’s dime-heavy defense and frequent use of 13-personnel aim to curb big plays, while Seattle’s special teams hold a meaningful edge. The piece leans Seattle to win a close game, though a Stafford–McVay surge or a late Rams stop could flip the outcome.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #nfc-championship #nfl

sports1 month ago•4 min saved

DVOA Analytics Forecasts Divisional Round NFL Matchups

FTN's DVOA-based analysis predicts the NFL Divisional Round outcomes, highlighting edges for the Broncos over the Bills, Seahawks over the 49ers (with Sam Darnold’s oblique injury to watch), Texans over the Patriots, and Rams over the Bears, while noting Seattle's offense against San Francisco and Houston/LA as favorable matchups; the piece continues the 'Analytics Predicts' series after a 4-2 showing in the previous round.

via SB Nation|

#analytics #divisional-round #dvoa

sports1 month ago•47 min saved

Texans-Patriots DVOA Clash Promises a Defensive Duel

FTN's DVOA Preview projects a tight divisional-round showdown: Houston's top-to-bottom defense and CJ Stroud's late-season surge face a New England squad whose defense has tightened and whose running game has heated up under Drake Maye. The Texans have climbed to 10th in Weeks 10–19, while the Patriots' pass defense sits ninth in that window, though New England's run defense has slipped. Maye's efficiency against the Texans' light blitz and Stroud's improved deep game will be critical, with injury concerns around Nico Collins and Christian Gonzalez potentially shaping matchups. Red zone remains a bottleneck for both offenses, and special teams could swing momentum. In short, a strength-vs-strength game with Houston's defense guiding the potential upset.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #nfl #patriots

nfl1 month ago•45 min saved

Seahawks Ride DVOA to Divisional Showdown Against 49ers

Seattle enters the Divisional Round as the betting favorite and DVOA darling thanks to the league’s top overall and weighted DVOA and a stingy defense, but its offense has been inconsistent and Sam Darnold at quarterback adds a wild card for the Seahawks’ opponent, San Francisco, which is dealing with major injuries like George Kittle’s Achilles tear and is getting Trent Williams back. The 49ers’ offense remains potent, but Seattle’s defense and home-field edge, plus SF’s injury gaps, point to a gritty, clock-controlled showdown where sustaining drives and avoiding turnovers will decide the winner.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#49ers #dvoa #injury

sports1 month ago•45 min saved

Broncos Slightly Favored in DVOA-Backed Bills Showdown

The DVOA preview sees the Broncos as a slight favorite over the Bills in the Divisional Round, boosted by home-field, rest, and higher DVOA numbers. Buffalo’s offense has trended downward late in the season amid injuries to their receiving corps, while Denver’s defense remains strong in pass defense and pressure. Buffalo can still win with Josh Allen, but Denver’s man-coverage approach and stout run defense could limit Buffalo’s weapons and ground game, making this a tight, defensively driven matchup where Denver’s rest and venue give them the edge.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#bills #broncos #divisional-round

sports3 months ago•13 min saved

Rams-Seahawks Clash in Week 11 Shapes NFC West Race

The article analyzes Week 10 NFL quarterback success rates, highlighting that while high success correlates with strong DVOA, some quarterbacks like Sam Darnold excel despite lower success rates due to big plays, whereas others like Geno Smith struggle with low success and DVOA. It also discusses issues like sacks and failed completions affecting quarterback performance, with specific focus on players like Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, and Jaxson Dart.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #football #quarterbacks

sports5 months ago•6 min saved

Packers Lead NFL in DVOA and Super Bowl Odds After Week 2

The Green Bay Packers lead the NFL in both offense and defense after Week 2 according to DVOA ratings, a rare feat since 2014, but historical data suggests leading in both categories doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl win. Other top teams include the Rams, Chargers, and Colts, with notable struggles from the Chiefs and Bengals. DVOA provides a detailed analysis of team performance, with the Packers currently showing strong early-season dominance.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #nfl #packers

sports5 months ago•6 min saved

NFL Week 1 Surprises and Early Season Takeaways

The NFL's Week 1 DVOA ratings show the Washington Commanders leading, with the Baltimore Ravens impressively ranked sixth despite a loss, thanks to their efficient yardage gains and underlying stats suggesting sustainable success. The ratings highlight the Ravens' strong performance and provide insights into team strengths and potential long-term prospects, with adjustments and new coefficients being introduced for more accurate future projections.

via FTN (For The Numbers)|

#dvoa #nfl #ravens

sports1 year ago•1 min saved

Vikings Eye Playoff Berth and Top NFC Seed in Week 14

The Minnesota Vikings, currently at 10-2, can clinch a playoff spot this week if they win against the Falcons, the Seahawks defeat the Cardinals, and the Bills beat the Rams. Despite their strong record, the Vikings are the fifth seed due to the Lions' 11-1 standing. They need to win two of their final five games to secure a playoff berth, with upcoming matches against the Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Packers, and Lions. The Vikings have a slim chance to win the NFC North but are likely to be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.

via Sports Illustrated|

#dvoa #minnesota-vikings #nfc-north