Peace Talks in the Balance: Territorial Concessions Meet Western Guarantees in Ukraine War
ISW warns that Western reporting suggests the United States may have accepted a Russia-driven sequence in peace talks that would see Ukraine cede territory (notably parts of Donetsk) before any formal Western security guarantees, a framework Kyiv has signaled it could accept only with meaningful protections—a setup that risks leaving Ukraine exposed to renewed Russian aggression. Moscow remains unreconciled on guarantees and seeks further territorial gains, complicating a durable peace. Western aid to Ukraine continues, Russia’s economy appears strained, and fighting persists across multiple fronts with ongoing drone/missile campaigns and strikes on energy and rear infrastructure.