Used vehicle prices are expected to increase by 2% in 2026, marking a stable and modest rise after years of volatility, with factors like lower loan rates and increased tax refunds boosting demand, though prices remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Wholesale used vehicle prices in the U.S. increased for the first time since March, according to Cox Automotive's Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. While prices remain elevated compared to historical levels, they are down 7.7% from August 2022. Tight inventories and expected sales levels are expected to prevent substantial pricing declines for the remainder of the year. Retail prices for consumers typically follow changes in wholesale prices. Used vehicle prices have been high due to the Covid pandemic and supply chain issues, leading to low supply of new vehicles and record-high prices. Cox Automotive predicts a slow and gradual recovery in wholesale prices to pre-pandemic levels by 2028.
The Mitsubishi Mirage is currently the only car on the market under $20,000, with the average new car price in the US now exceeding $48,000. The scarcity of small cars and the growing popularity of trucks and SUVs have driven up prices, along with inventory issues and increased costs. General Manager of Mitsubishi of Orange Park, Lou Tilahun, believes the rising prices are due to parts shortages and shipping costs. Analysts at Cox Automotive predict that $20,000 cars will soon be a thing of the past, and Mitsubishi has announced that production of the Mirage will be ending soon.
The average purchase price of new cars under $20,000 is becoming increasingly rare in the US as automakers focus on SUVs and trucks. The compact Mitsubishi Mirage is currently the only new vehicle with an average selling price below $20,000, but it is expected to be discontinued. Other affordable options include the Kia Rio, Nissan Versa, Hyundai Venue, and Nissan Sentra.
Cox Automotive predicts that General Motors will remain the top automaker in terms of new vehicle sales in the first half of 2023, followed by Toyota Motor and Ford Motor. Total new vehicle sales volume is expected to rise by 11.6% year-over-year, reaching 7.65 million units in the first half. Cox also forecasts significant sales growth for electric vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Motors, with Tesla projected to deliver 329,137 units by the end of the first half. Cox estimates that total battery electric vehicle sales will exceed 500,000 units in the first half of 2023.