Russia gears up Fortress Belt offensive as drone warfare and recruitment expand
ISW assesses Russia has likely begun artillery and drone-based battlefield preparation for a spring–summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast, with shelling near Kramatorsk and Kostyantynivka and a continuing battlefield-air-interdiction campaign. Moscow is expanding recruitment for its unmanned-systems forces in universities while cracking down on pro‑war information space figures. The report notes a Russian drone incident near the Charles de Gaulle and alleged white-phosphorus usage in Kostyantynivka, though civilians remain in the area. Ukrainian forces have made some local advances and oil-depot strikes amid broader energy infrastructure damage, as Russia pursues a multi-axis, costly campaign.