Understanding Asteroid Risks and Origins
Scientists determine the probability of an asteroid hitting Earth by tracking its orbit through astrometry, which involves precise observations over time to reduce uncertainty. As more data is collected, the predicted impact risk is refined, often decreasing as the orbit becomes clearer. The case of asteroid 2024 YR4 illustrates how initial impact probabilities can change significantly with additional observations, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and effective communication about impact risks.
