2024 Election Forecasts: Predictions, Polls, and Scenarios
538's final forecasts for the 2024 election indicate a highly competitive political landscape. The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is a virtual toss-up, with Harris having a 50% chance and Trump 49%. The U.S. House is also closely contested, with Democrats having a slight edge at 51% to control it. However, Republicans are heavily favored to win the Senate with a 92% chance. The forecasts highlight the uncertainty and potential for polling errors, suggesting a wide range of possible outcomes.