The Gulf Rift: How Saudi-UAE Rivalry Could Redraw the Middle East

A rising Saudi–UAE rift has shifted from a close strategic partnership to a widening rivalry over economics, investment, and security, driven by Saudi Vision 2030 and Riyadh’s pivot toward Iran, Qatar, and Turkey while the UAE pursues diversified global power. The feud plays out across Yemen, Sudan, Syria, and Israel, involving proxy contests and competing investments, raising the risk of broader instability even if a direct war remains unlikely. Western powers should hedge rather than pick sides to preserve influence over oil markets and trade routes, as a personal rapprochement between MBS and MBZ could help stabilize the region in the longer term.