Prospects for Peace in the South Caucasus

Despite intensive negotiations and Armenia's recognition of Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani authorities are openly preparing for another large-scale military strike against Artsakh. President Aliyev issued an ultimatum to Artsakh Armenians, demanding they disband all state institutions, forget about any status, and accept Azerbaijani citizenship. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense resumed its usual tactics of accusations against Armenians, issuing statements about shootings toward positions of the Azerbaijani army. The situation around Artsakh has reached its culmination, and the stage is set for a new large-scale escalation in Artsakh.