"Turkey's Growing Influence in the Black Sea and Ukraine's Battle Against Russia"

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Source: Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG
"Turkey's Growing Influence in the Black Sea and Ukraine's Battle Against Russia"
Photo: Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG
TL;DR Summary

Ukraine's successful tactics in the Black Sea have forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to retreat, shifting the balance of power in the region. Turkey, as the gatekeeper of the sea's naval traffic, has emerged as the dominant maritime force, benefiting from Russia's strategic miscalculation in attacking Ukraine. The Montreux Convention has played a crucial role in Turkey's approach to security in the Black Sea, and the most likely scenario is for Turkey to continue its suspension of naval vessel transits, depriving Russia of the ability to bring in new capabilities and raising Turkey's standing as the dominant naval force in the region.

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