The Complexities of Russia-Ukraine Relations: Covert Attacks, Insurrections, and Complicated Connections

The Biden administration advised Ukrainian officials not to conduct covert attacks inside Russia during the Wagner group rebellion, urging them not to influence the outcome of events or take advantage of the chaos. The U.S. officials were unaware of the specifics of Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans but knew he wanted to take military action to remove top Russian defense officials from power. The caution was aimed at preventing President Putin from accusing the United States or Ukraine of orchestrating the rebellion. Russian officials have recently indicated that they do not believe the West was behind the rebellion. The United States believes that most high-profile attacks in Russia are carried out by Ukrainian operatives, but uncertainty remains about who authorized these operations.