Unveiling Moscow's Enigmatic Black Box

Western policymakers and analysts are struggling to understand the motives and behavior of the Russian regime, exemplified by the recent case of Yevgeny Prigozhin. The lack of analytical clarity on Russian politics is symptomatic of a larger problem, as Western decision-makers rely on Moscow-centric approaches to handling the Ukraine war. The focus should shift towards strengthening Ukraine's military capabilities and resilience, closing loopholes that benefit Russia, and supporting Ukraine's economic integration and recovery. Western countries have leverage to bolster Ukraine's progress on the battlefield and protect its airspace, but attempts to influence Russian decision-making are likely to be ineffective until a better understanding of the cost-benefit analysis guiding the Kremlin is achieved.