The Credibility Crisis: A Growing Risk of Global Disorder

The world is currently experiencing a crisis of credibility in global politics, with the international system rapidly losing credibility as no single power is seen as willing and able to uphold the international order. Recent events, such as deteriorating relations between the US and China, the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the Middle East conflict, are symptoms of this broader crisis. Credibility is crucial for states to turn power into influence, and without it, there is disorder and instability. The United States, as the incumbent global leader, is facing doubts about its credibility due to recent foreign policy choices and domestic division. China, on the other hand, is seeking to leverage its growing strength to reshape global politics but is facing challenges to its credibility due to its assertive foreign policy and domestic political control. As a result, the credibility of the current international system is eroding, creating leadership and institutional vacuums and giving rise to geopolitical swing states and shifting international alignments.