Mitchell Institute urges 500-strong sixth-gen air fleet to deter China

A Mitchell Institute policy paper argues the U.S. Air Force must field at least 500 sixth-generation fighters and bombers—300 F-47 fighters and 200 B-21 bombers—beyond the current plan of 185 F-47s and 100 B-21s. The analysis warns China could establish a western Pacific sanctuary, risking attritional warfare unless the U.S. can project long-range air power in force. It calls for interim steps: keep legacy B-1/B-2 until at least 100 B-21s are available, accelerate B-21 funding, boost F-35A and F-15EX purchases, and expand autonomous drone wingmen. To reach 300 bombers, the Air Force would need about 224 B-21s, given its 76 B-52s, alongside a one-for-one fighter recapitalization strategy.